MyDD :: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move.

Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move.

by lovingj, Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 08:23:33 PM EST

Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move.

A lot noise is being made of Obama's silence on a withdrawal timetable for the upcoming spending supplemental. Some have suggested it is a lack of leadership on his part. A fellow Obama supporter and prominent Daily Kos member, Geeksque, said it best when he urged Obama to "take the damn ball" on the Iraq issue. However, there is reason to believe that the best is yet to come.

Chris Dodd, John Edwards, and just recently, Hillary Clinton have all stepped up to the plate on this issue in some way or another. I would be remiss if I did not say that John Edwards has issued the most forceful language of the three so far on this issue. With that said, there is another element to consider which I think is far more important and that is timing.

Stating your intentions on the withdrawal bill now provides a good setup but it still leaves Bush and his Republican cohorts one talking point that has the effect of killing the upcoming fire that is certain to ensue on the new spending supplemental . . . Petraeus has not delivered the report yet. Leaving this opening to the Republicans may do far more damage in the long run as it allows the case to be made that the Democrats would not listen to any opposing reasoning and that they made up their minds, as the Bush administration always does, before they even heard the report. Coming out steadfast after the report with an effective argument against the continued occupation of Iraq could in the end be the better opening to the withdrawal debate.

Its like a few kids trying to target a rabbit ten feet away with some rocks. If the kids become too eager and just lobbed the shot at the rabbit, from that distance they will likely miss and concede a golden opportunity to a rabbit that could have been hit. However, if they smartly timed their opportunity until the rabbit was only five feet away, then they would have a nearly unmissable shot.

Our golden shot is coming up. The moment of truth is what the Democrats do after the Petraeus report and I am confident that Obama is going to finally "take the damn ball."

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Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (2.00 / 1)

"Stating your intentions on the withdrawal bill now provides a good setup but it still leaves Bush and his Republican cohorts one talking point that has the effect of killing the upcoming fire that is certain to ensue on the new spending supplemental . . .Petraeus has not delivered the report yet. Leaving this opening to the Republicans may do far more damage in the long run as it allows the case to be made that the Democrats would not listen to any opposing reasoning and that they made up their minds, as the Bush administration always does, before they even heard the report."

The Republicans are always going to be looking for something to attack us on. That's why it is important for us to come out swinging on this issue. We shouldn't be leaving any doors open. Obama needs to speak up.

by lonnette33 on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 08:47:06 PM EST

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

Ahhh, maybe that legendary strategic thinking will finally become apparent. LOL

This is sooooo lame.

by basement angel on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 09:24:29 PM EST

Re: Look I know Ive been drinking and all tonight. (2.00 / 1)

For someone complaining about gutter politics your allegations and the way you present them seem pretty poisonous. That's it, Obama is a bad candidate with a crappy campaign and we should all ditch him and vote for Hillary because Gibbs is a real ass? Doesn't that same reasoning demand a code of past conduct within Hillary's inner circle which may be a poor contrast as well?

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 11:20:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look, I havent said a word here (2.00 / 1)

I have never charged Hillary with being currupt. She is a legitimate Democratic leader and I accept her as such, I just don't believe she is our best choice for nominee at this time. If she hadn't voted for the AUMF Obama would probably never have had the opening to challenge her. If she had run in 2004 on an anti-war platform and defeated Bush back then we wouldn't even be having this conversation now.

My principle difficulty with Hillary is that her ambition has guided her actions and the values she claims to uphold, especially in respect of the war, seem to take second place far too often.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 02:59:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Look I know Ive been drinking and all tonight. (none / 0)

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnfl ash/feb2004/nf20040225_4752_db009.htm

For the life of me, I can't understand the inner workings of the party machine. Maybe you can enlighten me.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 02:55:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

I myself would rather the Democrats not validate the fraud that is the Patraeus Report. I don't know the strategic value of calling Republicans on their BS, though.

"If [John Edwards] seems too good to be true, well, so be it; instead, you can pick a candidate who's bad enough to be plausible." - Daily Kos user Drew

by Junior Bug on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 10:06:40 PM EST

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (2.00 / 2)

Sen. Obama introduced the Iraq War De-Escalation Act with Iraq veteran Rep. Patrick Murphy in January '07 to start drawing down troops by May of this year.

http://www.patrickmurphy.house.gov/index .php?option=com_content&task=view&am p;id=179&Itemid=62

Unfortunately, it didn't pass. Sen. Obama is crystal clear on what he wants to do in Iraq and there isn't any calculation about it. People asking for "teeth" today are to be commended but they aren't leading on the issue. They are late to the party. If people are swayed by a few noises today or the timing of a vote on a Senate clock they aren't looking for substance or judgement, they may as well be using phrenology to determine who the best candidate is to get the U.S. out of Iraq.

I'm amazed at how many people need to be stroked and fed red meat on an almost daily basis in order not to attack a candidate for NOT releasing yet another set of talking points each and every day.

How shallow can you be to let a limited distribution press release in your inbox supercede 5 years worth of comments and votes for and supporting the Iraq War? Pretty damn shallow I'd say.

"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers

by joejoejoe on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 10:19:55 PM EST

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

It's not about getting on the record early, it's about actively leading the party. If you try to lead and nobody follows, you have to start over.

"If [John Edwards] seems too good to be true, well, so be it; instead, you can pick a candidate who's bad enough to be plausible." - Daily Kos user Drew

by Junior Bug on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 11:55:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (2.00 / 1)

That's sort of what I think. Yelling at people is not leading. I think real leadership would be to go to the other democratic candidates and those that agreed, to put out a statement together on what should be done since this issue is so important- otherwise it's just rhetoric for a campaign and it makes the campaign itself more important than the actual vote. I don't see how a "I'm saying this first and those who don't aren't leaders and those who say it later are just copying me" helps anything, really. It's just smoke and mirrors.

by reasonwarrior on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 12:44:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

Or maybe he's just playing it safe because he wants to emphasize the "new politics of non-confrontation".

If he doesn't speak up I think he loses all street cred he has for being against the AWR in 2002.

Waiting for the Glorious Train Wreck.

by Rooktoven on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 10:51:22 PM EST

spin (none / 0)

this is just another spin...

One way or the other, who cares what he'll say except dailykos...

Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?

by areyouready on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 10:55:17 PM EST

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

Another Obama poster, Cardboard, just sent a letter to Obama asking him to march at the very front of massive anti-war demonstrations in DC. He was begging for Obama to take a huge stand. This diary appears content with the opposite approach, complete silence. Personally, I think either approach is wrong. Don't go the Cardboard route, but also don't go with what this diary states. Obama needs to make a statement that is on par with what Clinton, Edwards and Dodd have said. Silence is not golden this time.

by georgep on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 11:13:10 PM EST

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (2.00 / 2)

I disagree, George, I think Obama should stand pat at the moment for several reasons, firstly to let this report, and the first round of Republican blame-throwing, sink in with the public before we come out swinging, as the diarist has suggested, secondly to let Hillary's change and experience two-fer get absorbed by Democrats before calling Hillary on it. I am guessing the electorate will react as follows to her significant Labour Day attempt to embrace the platform of every candidate running; the already committed voters will accept it as common sense and nod heads vigorously, the uncommitted will wonder how such a miracle is possible and give her candidacy a second thought for being too clever by half and the opposed will see it as an attempted hostile takeover of a competing brand by an aggressive and powerful rival.

I think she has overreached herself this time with her framing. In fact, George, I suggest that her high-water polling mark will be late October and things will 'change' soon after, but I would say that wouldn't I?

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 11:33:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (2.00 / 2)

The more I consider it George the more I see her most recent ploy, lauded as brilliant by her supporters, of being the agent of change and the pillar of the establishment, of essentially claiming the mandate of her main rivals as well as her own, as the turning point of the primary if we just have the prudence to not attack her too much about it and let the electorate draw its own conclusions. It takes a certain amount of fancy rhetorical footwork to justify her position and people can see through that. It really was a forced error on her part as she has used her 'experience' to fend off Obama but it is not the frame she wants for the general election. She thought she could pull it off but I am having doubts, the media isn't exactly swallowing it whole. Pride cometh before the fall.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Sep 07, 2007 at 11:45:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

What are you talking about? Did you even bother to read her letter to Bush? This isn't just a pander or a game. She is preparing to take over this mess, and that trumps some high-minded strategic plan(or frankly, utter silence) any day.

by bookgrl on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 12:18:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (2.00 / 2)

We shall see. I still have issues with her AUMF vote and suggest that on ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 02:51:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

Shaun, you REALLY think you have found the latest Clinton "gaffe" here? The one that will turn the polls around and swing in Obama's favor? How many of those "poll changing" and game-changing events have we been promised going all the way back to March? I recall looking at Obama's changed behavior and shaking my head in wonderment at the incredibly short-sighted and over-impatient strategic decision the Obama people have come up with in regards to the Pakistan/Bin-Ladin issue. Obama bizarrely thought that he hit on a major find when instead of issuing a simple one-line retort and then calling it a day he pounced on Clinton for 5 days straight with strong rhetoric that included a "Bush/Cheney" comparison. The damage was severe and predictable. The result in the polls has been swift, long-lasting and absolutely game-changing.

I guess as far as promises go, we shall see what we shall see as to whose approach is valued more by Democrats - Clinton's approach in the letter to Bush or Obama's "utter silence." Let me throw my hat into the ring here and make the claim that Clinton will come out ahead of Obama in this particular exchange of ideas. Again.

by georgep on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 10:49:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

Not a gaffe, George, but a forced tactical error which, yes, I think will be the turning point for her primary campaign. And the jury is still out on the foreign policy dust-up too.

Every expert who aligns with Obama, every politician who jumps in to assert they too would attack al-Qaeda in Pakistan on actionable intelligence, from the President on down, reinforces in the public mind that he was not only correct but that he was speaking in a political vacuum at first. These things take time, George, and as much as we are accustomed to the instant gratification of the contemporary media the real shifts in public opinion take a little while to sink in. Do you think a candidate can be the establishment, status quo incumbent and the insurgent populist? Really?

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 05:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (none / 0)

If he is silent now, he must have some sort of strategy in place. Obama can be really smart on some things. He really played that first quarter fundraising report in expert fashion. He should do what his instincts tell him- listening to blogger's demands to start directly confronting Hillary was a bad move now, it seems. I'd think twice before listening to them again.

by reasonwarrior on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 12:23:02 AM EST

I really don't think so (2.00 / 1)

He is campaigning as the guy with superior judgment on Iraq, and he has let himself get outflanked on this issue by several opponents who voted for the AUMF in 2002.

I ran into an acquaintance this evening who is a precinct captain for Obama in Des Moines. Let's just say that he is pretty unhappy with how the candidate has been handling this issue.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 02:36:34 AM EST

Re: I really don't think so (none / 0)

So, desmoinesdem, this almost sounds like as if you are just about ready to change your prediction that Clinton is not going to place better than third, perhaps even fourth in Iowa. Ready to go on the record yet, or will it take a bit more evidence? :-)

by georgep on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 10:52:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's silence may be a smart strategic move. (2.00 / 1)

It is abundently clear that those who pronounce that they have an wealth of experience still cannot envision what it takes to be the leader of the free world. Instead they take cheap shots at Mr. Obama only to find that they agree with his anaylsis to begin with. The clearest example was when they said that no Presidential candidate should talk about the use of Nuclear weapons or going after Osama BiLaden in Pakistan, or the vote to authorize the use of the military in Iraq, or taking money from lobbist, or having the Pharmacuetical industry at the table when we discuss national healtcare reform. And now they say that Impeachment is not a option. Do they have a backbone? or just rhetoric.

by olddog14u on Sat Sep 08, 2007 at 10:46:05 AM EST

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